Why Advertisers Panic—and Why They Shouldn’t
Recessions spark fear. And fear sparks budget cuts. Now, with inflation climbing, cost of living crises mounting, layoffs spiking, and tariffs being matched by counter-tariffs, uncertainty is everywhere.
As a CMO, cutting back ad spend might feel like the “responsible” move—but it’s also the fastest way to vanish from consumers’ minds. A century ago, Harvard graduate Roland Vaile tracked 250 U.S. companies through the post–World War I recession into the boom of the 1920s. His findings? Brands that increased marketing in a recession saw sales rise +20% above pre-recession levels. Those that cut spending? Their sales dropped -7%. (1)
But in an era of historic over-investment in performance media, it’s hard to fathom there’s not room for savings when it’s a choice between team jobs and…banner ads. Perhaps the question isn’t whether or not to trim investment, but how.
In this piece, we’ll unpack four of the most devastating recessions of the last century—and spotlight the standout brands that turned crisis into opportunity.
Because, if we’ve learned anything, it’s that history keeps repeating itself. Brands that strategically prioritize visibility in uncertain economic times don’t just survive—they come out ahead. Cutting spend may save you this quarter. But it could cost you the next five years. Visibility isn’t a luxury – It’s a growth strategy. Brands that stay visible tend to win. The only question is how.
THEN: The 2008 Global Financial Crisis
The 2008 financial crisis (Great Recession) was triggered by collapse of the U.S. housing bubble coupled with the failure of mortgage-backed securities tied to subprime loans. Banks bet that housing prices would continue rising. Then the bubble burst: defaults spiked, AUM plummeted, and global markets unraveled. When Lehman Brothers collapsed, credit froze, and the world entered a deep recession. For marketers, budgets were cut, media spending stalled, and consumer behavior shifted toward value-driven purchasing. But while many brands went dark, a few were brave enough to remain.
Ex #1: McDonalds
McDonald’s won by tapping into their affordability and accessibility during the recession. As consumer spending plummeted, McDonald’s doubled down, pouring resources into reviving and promoting their “Dollar Menu” to cater to a newly cost-conscious audience. The concept had existed since 2002– but it became the heart of their strategy during the Great Recession. They expanded offerings on the menu, including items like the McChicken sandwich and McSkillet breakfast burrito, delivering high perceived value at a low price. This positioned McDonald’s not just as a cheaper fast-food option, but as a viable alternative to dining at casual restaurants or even cooking at home.(2)
McDonald’s also took advantage of lower media rates by ramping up ad spend across high-ROI channels -–TV, radio, print, and in-store marketing—investing significantly more than rivals like Burger King and Taco Bell. The results were striking: while competitors saw declines, McDonald’s stock rose nearly 18% post-2008, and the brand experienced stronger sales growth than in the years leading up to the recession(2). The company also strategically promoted higher-margin items (like coffee) to draw in new audiences, especially unemployed or underemployed consumers seeking affordable indulgence. By staying visible, relevant, and affordable, McDonald’s didn’t just weather the downturn—it expanded, opening nearly 600 new locations in 2008 alone.(2)
Ex #2: Amazon
Another brand that thrived at the time was Amazon, using the economic downturn launchpad. While competitors pulled back, Amazon went on offense, investing heavily in high-ROI channels—but in a different way than McDonald’s. While McDonald’s focused outward on media and advertising, Amazon focused inward, strengthening logistics, demand forecasting, and smart pricing. By speeding up fulfillment and shifting to a customer-first “pull” inventory model, Amazon cut costs and boosted convenience. These moves didn’t just drive short-term sales—they reshaped consumer expectations and laid the groundwork for long-term growth. The result? Stronger sales, lasting loyalty, and the foundation of what would become Amazon Prime. In short, Amazon didn’t just survive the recession—it used it to change the game.(3)
NOW: Stay the Course—But Get Smarter
The biggest lesson from 2008 still holds true: resilience in a downturn isn’t about spending more—it’s about spending smarter. Today’s marketers have more tools than ever to identify high-performing channels, test messaging in real time, and optimize based on results. The brands that win are the ones that reallocate—not retreat. That might mean shifting budgets from broad awareness to precision-targeted media, doubling down on performance marketing, or leaning into platforms where your audience is still actively engaging.
In uncertain times, the instinct is to pause. But history—and data—show us that the brands who stay visible and agile come out ahead. Keep your message clear, your values strong, and your strategy adaptable. Because when the market recovers (and it will), you’ll be far ahead of the brands that went quiet.
THEN: COVID-19 Pandemic Advertising Freeze
The COVID-19 recession was sudden, global, and unlike any before—triggered not by economic fundamentals but by a public health crisis. As lockdowns spread and consumer activity stalled, marketers faced immediate disruption: Budgets were frozen, necessary in-person activations efforts (creative shoots, PR events, etc.) vanished overnight, and consumer behavior shifted rapidly to favor digital channels, home delivery, and brands that could offer both utility and empathy.
While many brands went silent or scrambled to adapt, a select few leaned into the moment, meeting consumers where they were.
Ex #1: P&G
P&G “doubled down” on marketing when COVID hit, recognizing that with so many people stuck at home, media consumption would skyrocket and competitors would retreat – a prime chance to win market share. P&G upped advertising for cleaning, health, and hygiene brands (categories in high demand) and kept brand messaging front-and-center. The payoff was clear: revenues surged in 2020, as peers struggled. P&G’s CEO publicly affirmed support for continued ad spend, and by Q3 2020 the company had boosted marketing investment by nearly 2 percentage points as a share of sales (4). Their long-term approach echoes P&G’s playbook from prior crises – consistently, they find that investing in brand-building during downturns leads to market share gains and faster post-crisis growth.
Ex #2: Pepsi vs. Coca Cola
When the pandemic brought the world to a standstill, Coca-Cola chose to “go dark” on advertising for months in 2020, claiming there was little point in marketing in a recession when large venues (like cinemas and stadiums) were closed (4). In hindsight, this was a mistake. PepsiCo did exactly the opposite – continuing to advertise snacks and drinks, and reallocating spend to digital and at-home consumption messaging. The outcome? PepsiCo seized market share, reporting “+5% net revenue growth in 2020, while Coca-Cola’s revenues fell by 11%” (4). Coke “blinked” in the face of the crisis and paid the price, while Pepsi adjusted strategy to align with consumption patterns. The real-world experiment proves that brands which maintain presence can outrun those that pull back.
Ex #3: Nike
Not all pandemic marketing wins were about budget – tone and creativity mattered too. Nike, for example, quickly pivoted its marketing strategy to meet the moment. Recognizing that people couldn’t play sports outside during lockdown, they launched a clever “Play Inside, Play for the World” campaign on social media to encourage home exercise and solidarity. They offered their premium Training Club app free of charge, encouraging people to stay active indoors. They dropped subscription fees for workout apps and flooded their channels with at-home fitness content (5). Rather than directly pushing products, Nike reinforced its brand purpose (“inspiring athletes everywhere”) at a time when consumers needed uplift. The company saw a rise in brand affinity, a surge in digital engagement, and online sales that helped offset in-store losses. Nike’s nimble campaign proves that creative messaging—when aligned with the moment—can strengthen customer trust.
NOW: Brand Visibility Is a Lifeline
The COVID-19 recession reinforced a crucial lesson: advertising isn’t a dispensable expense during a crisis—it’s a strategic tool for resilience. Even when conversions are soft, brand trust and visibility are powerful drivers of long-term growth. Brands that stayed visible (and contextually sensitive) maintained stronger sales and customer goodwill. From P&G’s sustained ad spend to Nike’s empathetic messaging and small businesses embracing digital, the pandemic proved that adaptive marketing is a brand’s best defense in a downturn.
THEN: 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis began with the collapse of the Thai baht after the government was forced to float currency due to lack of foreign currency to support their fixed exchange rate. Disaster spread to neighboring economies—Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, and beyond—triggering sharp devaluations, skyrocketing debt, mass unemployment, and severe recessions across the region. Foreign investment fled, governments secured emergency loans from the IMF, and many local conglomerates collapsed under the weight of debt and failed overexpansion.
For marketers (especially in Asia), the implosion was sudden and catastrophic. Advertising budgets were slashed or eliminated altogether, and consumer confidence tanked as household savings were wiped out. Entire media ecosystems contracted—but amid the volatility, a few bold brands made strategic moves that cemented their long-term relevance.
Ex #1: Samsung
Samsung, the South Korean conglomerate, teetered the line of bankruptcy at the time. But while most companies slashed budgets, Samsung’s leadership team honed in on brand building– betting that visibility and innovation would drive long-term relevance. Chairman Lee Kun-Hee “invest(ed) billions to reposition (Samsung) as a respectable brand, with innovation, cutting-edge technology and world-class design as trademark characteristics,” adopting an aggressive global advertising strategy to shed the brand’s low-cost image (6). The gamble worked: by the early 2000s, Samsung had become a top global brand, ranked #1 in IT by 2002 (6), and widely seen as a serious competitor to the likes of Sony and Apple.
Ex #2: AirAsia
The 1997 downturn also depressed global air travel and left many airlines buried in debt. In 2001, as the region was still reeling, Tony Fernandes bought the failing AirAsia for just 25 cents and re-launched it as a low-cost carrier with a bold promise: “Now Everyone Can Fly.” Against a backdrop of caution and cutbacks in aviation, Fernandes leaned in– ramping up advertising efforts to build AirAsia’s name. “Most companies cut marketing during a crisis, which is a huge mistake,” he said – “Adversity is a great time to build a business.”(7). During the 2003 SARS outbreak, when competitors cut media budgets and grounded flights, AirAsia tripled its marketing spend. The aggressive push didn’t fill every seat immediately, but it generated enough demand for AirAsia to cover costs and establish itself in the industry. Within two decades, AirAsia grew from 2 planes to over 200 (7).
NOW: Localization + Flexibility = Resilience
The Asian financial crisis proved that recession-era marketing isn’t about big budgets—it’s about bold strategy. Samsung, AirAsia, and Thailand’s tourism board showed how staying present and relevant can turn crisis into opportunity, whether by rebranding, investing in reach, or entering new markets.
Today, the playbook has evolved, but the lesson holds true: resilience comes from regional agility. Multinational brands that tailor messaging and pricing to local market realities consistently outperform. Think: dynamic creative optimization, locally relevant offers, and nimble media buying that flexes with shifting demand. The modern marketer’s edge lies in knowing when to speak up—and how to speak the local language, both literally and strategically. In downturns, brands that lead with relevance, not retreat, are the ones that shape what comes next.
THEN: Dot-Com Bubble Burst
The early 2000s brought the collapse of one of the most hyped markets in modern memory: the dot-com bubble. Fueled by speculation and rapid growth in internet-based companies, the bubble burst when many startups—built more on buzz than business models—failed to deliver profits. The NASDAQ lost nearly 80% of its value from its 2000 peak, triggering a recession marked by tech layoffs, vanishing venture capital, and widespread skepticism toward digital innovation.
The collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000 led to a mild global recession, compounded by the 9/11 attacks in 2001. For advertisers, especially in tech, this was a moment of reckoning. Marketing budgets dried up almost overnight. Many once-buzzy brands disappeared as quickly as they came. But not everyone pulled back. Smart legacy players and future disruptors recognized the moment not just as a setback—but as a reset.
Ex #1: Apple
In 1997 – just before the dot-com crash – Apple was near bankruptcy and launched its famous “Think Different” campaign to redefine the brand’s identity. The iconic ads featuring heroes like Einstein and Gandhi “refresh[ed] a brand suffering from neglect” and helped restore consumer confidence (10). Coupled with innovative products (the iMac and then the iPod in 2001), the brand positioning set the stage for an extraordinary comeback. The introduction of the iPod amid the 2001 recession proved hugely successful, putting Apple on a path to become the world’s most valuable company (11)– a turnaround fueled by innovation and resonant advertising.
Ex #2: BMW
The German automaker bucked industry norms in 2001 by investing in cutting-edge digital content instead of cutting ads. BMW produced “The Hire” – a series of stylish short films for the web starring Clive Owen – essentially high-quality mini action movies built around BMW cars. This creative campaign (now a landmark in content marketing) generated massive buzz and consumer engagement at a time when dial-up internet was the norm (12). The results spoke for themselves: “BMW’s U.S. sales climbed 12% following the BMW Films series”, and the company captured a new audience of online video enthusiasts (12). By prioritizing storytelling and entertainment over hard sells, BMW strengthened its brand and saw tangible sales growth even as competitors went quiet.
Ex #3: Amazon
The dot-com crash obliterated many e-commerce startups, but Amazon survived and eventually thrived with a long-term marketing mindset. Founder Jeff Bezos famously kept investing in customer experience and brand trust rather than panicking. Amazon’s stock did lose over 90% of its value during the bust, yet the company leveraged its strong brand loyalty (and a then-novel advertising model in AdWords for customer acquisition) to recover (11). It took nearly a decade for Amazon’s share price to regain its pre-crash high (11), but by steadfastly communicating its value proposition and service reliability through the downturn, Amazon emerged as one of the world’s most valuable brands. This underscores a key lesson: brands that continue to market their strengths during a recession can position themselves for explosive growth afterward
NOW: Invest in What Lasts
The dot-com bust taught brands a timeless lesson: hype fades, but strong brand equity and strategic investment endure. Today, the equivalents of the flashy dot-coms are buzzy startups chasing top-line growth without a sustainable model. But the smart money is moving differently.
Just like Apple, Amazon, and BMW leaned into brand-building and innovation when others pulled back, today’s most resilient brands are investing in what lasts: customer relationships, owned channels, and measurable media performance. That means prioritizing tools like marketing mix modeling (MMM), customer lifetime value (LTV) analysis, and incrementality testing—all of which help teams understand not just what works, but why.
When markets tighten, it’s tempting to cut spend or chase short-term wins. But the long game belongs to brands that use downturns to double down on trust, loyalty, and data-driven strategy. Whether through creative content or performance-focused media, the brands that weather uncertainty best are the ones who stay visible—and smart.
Recession Playbook: What to Do Now
Looking across crises — from the Great Recession (2008) to the Dot-Com Bust (2000), to the Asian Financial Crisis (1997), to COVID-19 (2020) — it’s clear that brands who thrive during recessions follow a similar pattern.
They don’t go dark. They don’t panic. They pivot strategically.
Here’s how you can speed ahead when the market slows down:
- Keep (or increase) Share of Voice: Rather than disappearing, keep communicating with consumers. History shows that investing in advertising during recessions often leads to gains in market share and higher sales growth, both during and after a downturn (13).
- Adapt Messaging and Creative Strategy: Successful marketing in a recession isn’t about blithely running the same ads. It’s about striking the right tone and meeting current customer needs. Apple’s inspirational “Think Different” spoke to values and Nike’s COVID campaign spoke to safety and unity. In uncertain times, consumers seek trustworthy, relevant messages – brands that deliver empathy, utility, or optimism in their advertising foster deeper loyalty.
- Get Innovative with Media and Tactics: Crises often accelerate changes in media behavior (e.g. rise of internet in 2001, social media in 2020). The thriving brands are those that experiment with new channels or formats to engage audiences. BMW’s early foray into web films in 2001 is a prime example of creative innovation paying off. In 2020, many brands pivoted to live-streaming, influencers, or purpose-driven campaigns. Innovation in how you deliver your message can capture attention when old tactics fall flat.
- Hammer Core Brand Values: During uncertainty, consumers gravitate to brands they trust. Thriving companies use advertising to reinforce what their brand stands for – whether it’s quality (Samsung), customer care (Amazon), or community (Nike). P&G consistently markets the usefulness of its products and corporate reliability during recession, reminding consumers why its brands are dependable. A strong, values-driven brand message not only preserves loyalty but also attracts new customers looking for assurance.
- Integrate Marketing with Overall Strategy: It’s clear that advertising alone isn’t a magic bullet – it works best in tandem with smart business moves (product innovation, pricing adjustments, customer experience). Align your advertising with how your product or service itself is adapting to the recession. When marketing messages reinforce real value (be it lower price, new innovation, or greater purpose), consumers respond.
Recession-proof your media strategy with Criterion Global. Great advertising isn’t just for the good times—it’s for the turning points. Don’t retreat. Recalibrate with intent. Contact us today and let’s build a strategy that thrives in any market.
Resources:
- Roland Vaile Study – Medium Giant. “How Marketing During a Recession Pays Off.”
- McDonald’s (2008 Financial Crisis) – Renaissance Marketer. “McDonald’s Dollar Menu Campaign During the Financial Crisis of 2008.”
- Amazon – Shipium Blog. “Three Ways Retail Can Win During a Recession.”
- Pepsi & P&G (COVID-19 Response) – Marketing Week. “Why P&G and Coca-Cola are Right Not to Cut Ad Spend.”
- Nike – Marketing Dive. “Nike Runs with ‘Play Inside, Play for the World’ Slogan Amid COVID-19.”
- Samsung – Martin Roll. “Samsung: A Global Asian Brand.”
- AirAsia – MIT Sloan. “Why AirAsia Boosts Marketing During a Crisis.”
- Brand Roundup – Calameo. “Marketing in a Recession: Lessons from Global Brands.”
- Brand Case Studies – Wolfestone. “Recession Success Stories: What 3 Major Brands Taught Us About Recession-Proofing.”
- Apple – Brandingmag. “Brand Campaigns Part 5.1: Thinking Different About Apple’s Think Different Campaign.”
- Amazon & Apple (Dot-Com Recovery) – Quartz (QZ). “The Dot-Com Crash Didn’t Kill Amazon. It Made It Stronger.”
- BMW Films – LinkedIn. “How Brands Can Still Learn From BMW Films.”
Meta-Analysis – Avekon. “The Effect of Advertising on Profitability in Recession Periods.”
