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Online to Offline Advertising Attribution: 2025 Data + Takeaways

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” – Arthur Conan Doyle

In a world where ad impressions are no longer just clicks but physical footfalls, online-to-offline advertising is changing the landscape of digital transformation. Today, the most revolutionary impact of online ads isn’t just a virtual purchase but the journey they inspire to real-world destinations—from retail stores to restaurants, car dealerships, and beyond. With new data revealing how digital media directly translates to in-person engagement, we’re seeing what may be the final frontier of digital advertising: proving, at scale, how online ad dollars drive genuine offline business impact.

Online to Offline: From Foot Traffic Metrics to True Business Value

Smart marketers use data to measure campaigns and make optimizations. 45% of marketers think that new customer acquisition is the most important objective for data-driven marketing to achieve. But data, or the lack thereof, can create blind spots in understanding the customer’s true path to purchase, particularly in measuring digital’s impact offline. Enter online-to-offline advertising attribution, a key approach in proving the impact of online media to offline commerce.

Despite the rapid growth of ecommerce, brick-and-mortar retail remains essential in online to offline commerce, serving as a real-world point of consumer engagement, like out of home media. More than 80% of retail transactions still take place offline (Statista). This can be especially true for  brands in sectors such as Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG), where products are either primarily consumed in-store or cannot be digitally transacted. In scenarios like this, online-to-offline attribution is a pivotal area enabling a defense (or sound analysis) of digital impact to non-digital sales and ROAS.

What We’ve Learned About Online to Offline Advertising from Global Brands

As a leading independent media planning and buying agency, Criterion Global’s work in online-to-offline advertising attribution dates back to 2009, before “off-the-shelf” third-party online to offline advertising attribution existed. Early on, we worked with direct response advertisers to trace attribution of lead generation campaigns, using nascent ad tech to prove ROI of digital vs. “traditional” media channels.

Since then, ad tech now enables “closed loop” measurement of online to offline commerce impact, allowing brands to track the journey from digital engagement to in-store action with a high degree of accuracy.

  • Measurement of Offline Impact
  • Location-Based Sales Lift: Analyzing the correlation between ad impressions and increased sales in specific locations.
  • In-Store Footfall resulting from digital Campaigns: Measuring the physical visits driven by digital touchpoints.
  • Online-to-Offline Channel Analysis: Distinguishing the effects of channels like Social, Search, Connected TV, and Display in driving in-store action.

The ROAS is Real: Online-to-Offline for Real World Impact

Online-to-Offline opportunities don’t end with measurement. Criterion Global manages omnichannel media buying strategy to improve omnichannel outcomes – work that was once-impossible a decade ago for lack of online-to-offline insight.

We’re no stranger to challenges. And Offline brands, particularly “challenger” brands working to topple market leaders, often find data on digital impact scarce. Criterion Global’s focus on online-to-offline media measurement has yielded major developments for these brands, reframing what is achievable in their paid media efforts. 

Fortunately, after years of investment in complicated undertakings, we’ve worked to gather case proof – our own as well as third-party evidence – to show that online to offline ROAS is real, as is the ability to prove this impact. 

Can Online Ads Drive Real-World Commerce? Case Evidence Says Yes

The gathered body of evidence shows not that online drives offline impact, but more precisely that video and brand media holds the key to efficiently and effectively driving that lift in  physical foot traffic and elevated brand engagement. By applying targeted, brand-focused video campaigns, retailers and brands can more effectively convert online impressions into offline sales and repeat visits.

Here are 5 cases that prove this across a wide range of industries:

Case 1: TikTok + Foursquare Partnership to Drive In-Store Foot Traffic for Leading Retailer
  • Date: August 8, 2024
  • Client: Leading Apparel Retailer
  • Channels: TikTok (Ad Platform) and Foursquare (Location-Based Measurement)
  • Challenge: The retailer aimed to quantify the effect of digital campaigns on in-store foot traffic, finding it difficult to link online ad engagement to offline visits and purchases.
  • Solution: TikTok campaigns were combined with Foursquare’s location analytics to connect ad exposure with in-store visits.
  • Results: Achieved a 9.2% lift in store visits, confirming the real-world impact of TikTok video campaigns on driving customer foot traffic.
Online to Offline Proof: Bar graph illustrating a 9.2% boost in in-store visitation using TikTok video ads compared to without, auto draft data from Foursquare.
Case 2: Statista + Think with Google – Video’s Role in Retention and Brand Awareness
  • Date: June 2017, August–September 2016 (Google TrueView Brand Lift Study)
  • Insights: According to Statista, video content leads to higher message retention, with viewers retaining 95% of information from video versus 10% from text.
  • Performance in Brand Awareness: Google’s TrueView studies showed that brand awareness increased among users exposed to a single video impression, underscoring the value of video in building brand recognition and setting the foundation for eventual offline conversion.
Online to Offline Proof: Bar chart illustrating message retention on content types: Audible Only vs. Audible + Viewable. Audible + Viewable achieves 3.8x and 1.6x more retention for Content Retention and Brand Awareness, respectively, making it an auto draft choice for marketers aiming to enhance impact.
Case 3: Media, Ads, + Commerce – Effectiveness of Video in Retail Media Ad Formats
  • Date: December 2023
  • Formats Tested: Sponsored Products, Sponsored Brands, Sponsored Brands Video
  • Performance Metrics: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) and iROAS (Incremental ROAS)
  • Results:
    • Sponsored Products: Highest ROAS at $4.41, though it captures last-touch attribution with lower incremental lift.
    • Sponsored Brands Video: Achieved the highest iROAS ($5.20), indicating that moving up the funnel with video formats drives stronger incremental offline sales than last-touch metrics alone.
    • Insight: Video formats like Sponsored Brands Video deliver incremental offline sales lift and brand-building benefits, proving valuable for long-term revenue impact in retail media.
Online to Offline Proof: Bar chart displaying CPG campaign performance for December 2023. Auto Draft data reveals Sponsored Products: ROAS $4.41, iROAS $1.65; Sponsored Brands: ROAS $1.80, iROAS $2.33; and Sponsored Brands Video with a remarkable ROAS of $5.20, showcasing targeted marketing success.
Case 4: Healthy Pet Food Brand – Driving Foot Traffic Through CTV + Foursquare Targeting
  • Client: Healthy Pet Food Brand
  • Channels: CTV for video campaigns with Foursquare’s FSQ Audience and Offline Conversion Feeds
  • Objective: Build brand awareness and increase in-store traffic to local pet retailers carrying the brand.
  • Targeting Strategy: Location-based audience segments, including pet store visitors and competitor locations.
  • Results:
    • Achieved a low Cost Per In-Store Visit (CPISV), with FSQ Audience outperforming averages at $0.90 and $0.81 per visit (compared to $1.64 and $1.52).
    • Visit Rate: FSQ Audience achieved a 2.46% visit rate, 40% higher than the campaign average.
    • Insight: Video ads combined with precise audience targeting and CTV increased foot traffic to pet stores, showcasing the impact of online brand video on offline commerce.
Online to Offline Proof: Bar chart comparing foot traffic: 'Not Exposed' in black, 'Exposed' in red, revealing a 1.8 times increase when exposed to TV ads. This auto draft highlights the advertising impact. Source: Roger Sports & Media.

Case 5: TV’s Effect on Foot Traffic for Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) Brand
  • Date: Recent campaign, likely within the past year
  • Client: Leading QSR Brand
  • Channels: TV (Canadian Cable Company Rogers) using Rogers Enabled Data (R.E.D.)
  • Audience: Male millennials with high income, viewing during prime time and weekend dayparts, with interests in sports, fashion, and healthy living.
  • Results:
    • Exposure: 49% of Canadian Cable company Rogers subscribers saw the ad.
    • Foot Traffic: 43% of those exposed to the ad visited the restaurant, with viewers seeing the ad 10+ times nearly twice as likely to visit.
    • Frequency Impact: Frequent viewers (10+ times) were 53% more likely to visit five or more times, emphasizing video’s role in driving repeated offline engagement.
Online to Offline Proof: Bar chart illustrating foot traffic impact: "Either TV or Digital" is half the height of "Both TV & Digital," labeled 2x. Data sourced from Foursquare highlights how auto draft strategies shape marketing effectiveness.

The role of brand in online-to-offline outcomes

One of the most notable examples of online to offline commerce success is demonstrated in Criterion Global’s long term relationship with the beloved Hallmark brand, renowned for its deep-rooted presence in holidays worldwide since 1910. Over the course of 5 years, Hallmark’s holiday marketing efforts saw a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 93%, attributed largely to offline revenue gains made possible by enhanced digital strategies.

Our unique approach progressively shifted Hallmark’s sales ratios, revealing a strong, data-driven alignment between online engagement and offline conversions. During peak seasons, Hallmark campaigns achieved a return on ad spend (ROAS) as high as 11x, with end-of-campaign pacing generating 52% of offline revenue in the critical final week before major holidays. Our expertise in aligning pacing with consumer buying behavior helped to ensure effective “just-in-time” messaging at scale.

Moreover, Hallmark achieved foot traffic benchmarks that were 5x higher than Meta’s average offline revenue benchmarks. This synergy between online and offline efforts delivered measurable in-store engagement and drove sales results well beyond industry standards.

Hallmark Marketing Manager, Tyler Cordel, reflected on working with Criterion Global:

 “Marketing organizations are perpetually engaged in the ongoing debate if media spends should go towards supporting ‘The Brand’ or ‘The Sale.’ Over our years of work with Criterion Global, we’ve concluded that branding versus performance media spending isn’t ultimately a binary choice. Each point of sale—whether owned e-commerce platforms, brick-and-mortar stores, or online-to-offline pick-up in store—presents unique marketing allocation challenges and opportunities that Criterion Global has helped us navigate. Their approach to optimizing our media mix has been invaluable in achieving both our brand-building and sales-driving goals.”

Tyler Cordel, Marketing Manager, Hallmark Cards, Inc.

Beyond Store Visits: How Online-to-Offline Measurement Benefits Every Sector

Criterion Global’s success in managing Hallmark’s holiday campaigns not only illustrates the power of a data-driven, omnichannel strategy but also the importance of online-to-offline attribution in quantifying digital impact on physical store success. But, as shown in all of the case studies shared, the impact goes way beyond just one retailer. 

Online to offline insights are instrumental in maximizing campaign effectiveness and depicting the broader relationship between digital and traditional consumer interactions. As e-commerce continues to evolve, Criterion Global remains committed to exploring and refining strategies that bridge these two worlds, enabling brands to thrive in an increasingly interconnected market.

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